Recently, the global financial markets have been shaken by a sudden shockwave. The Bank of Japan's policy shift caused the originally calm markets to instantly stir. A statement like "ready to raise interest rates at any time" completely shattered the previous image of the dovish central bank, and this impact is even more ferocious than the Fed's policy adjustments.

Let's first look at the market performance last night: the yen surged by 3% in a single day, causing collective heavy losses for investors who were shorting the yen. The JPY interest rate differential narrowed overnight, and traders relying on Carry Trade arbitrage were immediately squeezed. Japanese bond yields soared rapidly, and global leverage positions are beginning a new round of reshuffling.

This time, it’s truly different. From a fundamental perspective, Japan’s wage inflation data is rising in a double-helix pattern, with the results of the Spring Wage Negotiations approaching the critical 3% level. Under the annual merit-based pay system, Japan’s labor costs continue to rise, leaving the central bank with no room to sit still. The YCC (Yield Curve Control) line of defense has long been broken, and the era of negative interest rates has officially ended. Ueda and his team have even paved the way for multiple future rate hikes, and the market has already fully priced in this expectation.

A chain reaction follows. Japanese capital is quietly pulling out from around the world—U.S. stocks face pressure from Japanese capital withdrawals, the U.S. bond market is also unsafe, and Southeast Asia’s emerging markets need to be on high alert. Other Asian currencies may see short-term relief, but this also means that an important liquidity channel for risk assets is being cut off again. Most critically, if the yen interest rate truly returns to the 1% level, can leveraged positions financed in yen still breathe? This question cannot be ignored.

Currently, the market is filled with two types of people: one searching everywhere for stop-loss opportunities, and the other still debating "Is there still a chance to bottom fish?" Honestly, instead of wasting effort guessing market tops and bottoms, it’s better to ask yourself two ultimate questions.

Can your positions withstand a rapid surge in volatility? Cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile, and combined with the global liquidity reallocation, short-term fluctuations could far exceed expectations. Can your leveraged positions handle doubled funding costs? Those who financed with yen during the low-interest-rate era should be especially cautious, as the cost structure is already beginning to change.

The thirty years of zero interest rate era was like boiling frogs in warm water; suddenly, the water temperature has risen to the level of a pressure cooker. The global interest rate reversal show has just begun, and how it will develop depends on the specific actions of central banks. But one thing is certain—the liquidity landscape will change, and the logic of risk asset allocation must be adjusted accordingly. As part of the global risk asset universe, the Bitcoin market will not remain calm in the face of this shockwave. Margin adequacy, position size, leverage multiples—these fundamental issues need to be carefully examined now more than ever.