What's Driving Matador Resources Stock? Analysts See 38% Upside Potential

Strong Analyst Conviction Behind the Rally

Mizuho has reiterated its Outperform stance on Matador Resources (NYSE: MTDR) as of December 12, 2025, signaling confidence in the energy company’s trajectory. The research firm’s bullish outlook is supported by concrete numbers: analysts are targeting an average price of $61.30 per share, representing a 38.54% gain from the current $44.25 level. Price projections span from $46.46 to $89.25, showing varied conviction among the analyst community.

Diving into the fundamentals, Matador is projected to generate $3,373MM in annual revenue, though this marks a 5.17% decline year-over-year. On the earnings front, non-GAAP EPS is forecasted at 8.71, providing investors with a clearer picture of operational profitability.

The Institutional Money Trail

Institutional backing remains substantial, with 1,002 funds and institutions holding positions in Matador Resources. While this represents a decrease of 42 owners compared to the previous quarter (down 4.02%), those who remain are doubling down. The average portfolio weight across all institutional holders is 0.29%, up 7.00% quarter-over-quarter—a sign that major players are increasing their exposure despite the slight reduction in participant count.

Total institutional share count dipped modestly by 0.34% to 143,492K shares, suggesting measured profit-taking rather than panic selling. The put/call ratio of 0.86 reflects decidedly bullish sentiment in the options market.

Who’s Buying and Selling?

Major index players show mixed signals. The iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (IJH) holds 3,792K shares—3.05% of the company—up 0.23% from its prior position. Yet the fund trimmed its overall MTDR allocation by 11.74%, indicating a rebalancing rather than a fundamental loss of interest.

T. Rowe Price Investment Management increased its stake to 3,688K shares (2.97% ownership), a 4.05% jump from previous holdings. Like IJH, the fund still reduced its allocation weight by 5.01%, following broader portfolio optimization trends.

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VTSMX) holds 3,637K shares representing 2.93% ownership. Its position grew 2.23%, though portfolio allocation shrank 14.77%.

Lsv Asset Management raised its holdings to 3,532K shares (2.84% ownership), up 5.59% sequentially, but also pared back allocation by 5.92%. The most notable move came from Adage Capital Partners, which boosted its stake by a substantial 14.24% to 2,981K shares (2.40% ownership) and increased its allocation by 3.19%—the only major fund actively expanding its MTDR bet.

The Bottom Line

Matador Resources continues attracting serious capital despite mixed institutional moves. Analyst enthusiasm, combined with supportive options sentiment and growing average fund allocations, suggests conviction that the current price offers compelling entry point for long-term investors.