Seeing the news that a major institution increased its ETH holdings by 1 billion USD, the only thought that flashes in my mind is: retail investors are about to give away their money again.

Over the past three months, I’ve discovered a particularly painful pattern—whenever this institution makes a high-profile statement, the trend of ETH should be questioned, even looked down upon. But this time? Still, a bunch of people hear the word "increase" and immediately chase up at $2,940.
Why am I not that excited? I looked at on-chain data and understood: this institution started accumulating ETH when it was still at $3,400 in early November. Up to now, they’ve bought a total of 580,000 ETH, pouring in $1.72 billion, with an average cost of $3,208. Now, at $2,940, they’re sitting on an unrealized loss of $141 million. Even more brutal, they’ve also leveraged—borrowing 8.87 billion USDT from a lending protocol, nearly double leverage.
Many people see this data and go all-in, but let’s clarify one thing: institutional buying does not necessarily mean a bottom signal.
What’s the difference? Institutions can absorb paper losses; retail investors cannot. They manage over $10 billion, and this ETH position only accounts for 17%. Even if ETH drops another 50%, their overall account would only lose 8.5%. But retail investors? Fully leveraged, with all-in positions, if ETH drops another 20%, their accounts could be wiped out.
And here’s an even more painful point: institutions play the waiting game, retail investors play the fast-food game.
They build positions gradually over two months, while retail investors see a tweet and go all-in that night. The next day, when ETH drops to $2,800, they start panicking. Institutions are calculating cycles; retail investors are waiting for tomorrow’s rise—that’s the fundamental difference.
I have to say something less pleasant: sometimes, institutional increases are just marketing.
History has already taught us that those big crashes and project collapses in crypto are often just liquidity needs disguised as bottom signals.
In plain words: the good news you see might just be their signal to get you in.
Ask yourself three more realistic questions: Is this money really idle? Can you calmly watch it drop another 30%? Do you have the patience to wait 3 to 6 months? If the answer is no, don’t move.
If you really want to participate, don’t just copy institutional conclusions—learn from their tactics. For example, if you have 100,000 RMB to buy ETH, don’t buy all at once. Buy 30% at the current price, if it drops another 10%, buy another 30%, and keep the remaining 40% for the final buy.
And always have a bottom line: if you bought at $2,940, sell if it drops to $2,500. It’s okay to be wrong; preserving your principal is the real skill. Wait for the real bottom.
Remember this last sentence: institutional buying is their show, not your reference. Your task isn’t to participate in this drama but to survive and see the next round.