The Metals Company (TMC) Stock Popping on U.S. Critical Minerals Push

The Rally Nobody Expected (But Makes Sense)

The Metals Company’s (NASDAQ: TMC) stock has been putting on quite a show lately. After taking a brutal hit with a 50%+ drop from mid-October peaks, TMC staged a turnaround in late November that’s hard to ignore. Over the past month alone, the stock has surged 16%, and the annual gain is outright wild — up 470% since the year started. While most investors might assume such explosive moves signal major operational breakthroughs, the real story here is political rather than fundamental.

Why Washington Suddenly Cares About Seabed Mining

The driving force behind TMC’s bounce? Policy tailwinds. In April, the White House released an executive order zeroing in on offshore critical minerals and deep-sea resources, citing “national security” concerns. The order explicitly called for accelerating “responsible development of seabed mineral resources” — basically a blueprint written for TMC’s business model.

This wasn’t random. The U.S. is actively trying to reduce its dependency on China for critical minerals, which has become a strategic priority. Washington has been busy stitching together supply agreements with regional allies like Australia, Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia. Deep-sea mining suddenly looks like a missing piece of that puzzle.

The Regulatory Bottleneck That Policy Might Bypass

Here’s where it gets interesting: TMC had been stuck in limbo. The company’s deep-sea mining technology works — they’ve proven that much. But they’ve been waiting for clearance from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) to actually extract minerals commercially. Complicating matters: the ISA hasn’t even finalized its regulatory rulebook for commercial seabed mining operations yet. That left TMC sitting on potentially billions worth of resources with no legal pathway to access them.

The White House move changes the equation. Since the U.S. never ratified the treaty that established the ISA, it could theoretically pursue domestic interests independent of the agency’s approval. That creates potential political friction down the road, but for now, TMC is exploring a U.S.-focused path that could accelerate commercial mining timelines significantly.

The Reality Check

Let’s be clear about what TMC actually is right now: a speculative bet. The company has zero commercial revenue. Every bit of this rally is built on anticipation about future demand and policy support, not current earnings. Investors are essentially gambling that TMC’s resource base will eventually translate into supply chain relevance as U.S. efforts to de-risk from China intensify.

That’s not to say the thesis is wrong — just that it remains exactly what it’s always been: a play on future developments and policy shifts rather than proven business fundamentals.