Two Divergent Paths in the Critical Minerals Race: UAMY and TMC Chart Different Strategic Routes

The competition for critical mineral resources has intensified globally, with two publicly-traded companies pursuing markedly different approaches to supply chain security. United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) is focused on rapid domestic production scaling, while The Metals Company (TMC) is betting on deep-ocean resource extraction. Understanding their distinct trajectories reveals how the critical minerals sector is developing across multiple strategic fronts—from terrestrial mining to seabed harvesting. Both firms address U.S. supply vulnerabilities, yet their operational models, timelines, and risk profiles diverge substantially.

Contrasting Market Momentum and the Antimony Opportunity

Year-to-date performance tells an instructive story. UAMY shares have surged 425%, while TMC has advanced 227.1%, reflecting investor recognition of their respective progress. However, the drivers behind these gains differ fundamentally.

UAMY’s momentum is anchored in tangible near-term operational achievements. The company achieved 160% year-over-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, reaching $17.5 million, with gross profit expanding 183% during the same period. Nine-month revenues climbed to $26.2 million (up 182%), while gross margins improved to 28% despite persistent pricing pressures. This financial acceleration is grounded in rising demand for antimony symbol—the chemical element critical for flame retardants, advanced electronics, and military applications.

The financial foundation is solid: warrant exercises and equity offerings have bolstered cash reserves to $38.5 million with minimal long-term debt, enabling capital deployment for capacity expansion and exploration. This liquidity cushion provides UAMY with operational flexibility as it scales production and processing capabilities.

The Antimony Mining Revival and Domestic Production Leadership

UAMY’s most consequential achievement in 2025 is resurrecting domestic antimony mining, an industry dormant for approximately four decades. At Stibnite Hill in Montana, bulk sample extraction has commenced with projected ore grades surpassing 10% antimony content—marking the reestablishment of U.S. antimony mining.

Beyond Montana, the company has accelerated multiple exploration initiatives spanning Alaska and Ontario, encompassing trenching operations, gravity surveys, land acquisitions, and assay work targeting antimony symbol, cobalt, and tungsten deposits. Regulatory obstacles in Alaska prompted an adaptive strategy—UAMY acquired private holdings to circumvent state and federal permitting delays, demonstrating operational pragmatism.

Processing infrastructure advancement parallels the mining expansion. UAMY expanded the Thompson Falls facility capacity, refurbished furnace equipment, and enlarged staff to process rising ore volumes and accumulated inventory. Management underscores that UAMY remains the sole domestic processor and producer of antimony products, including defense-specification antimony trisulfide formulations. This monopoly positioning aligns the company with U.S. defense-industrial-base priorities.

Strategic diversification is also underway. The Fostung tungsten deposit acquisition and the Iron Mask cobalt property evaluation position UAMY to extend its antimony-derived operational model across additional critical minerals where domestic supply is nonexistent. Engagements with the Defense Logistics Agency and the Defense Industrial Base Consortium reflect UAMY’s expanding government relevance as Washington pursues non-Chinese mineral sourcing alternatives.

TMC’s Long-Cycle Seabed Strategy and Regulatory Advancement

TMC operates in a fundamentally different timeframe. The company generated zero revenues in the most recent quarters, prioritizing regulatory clearance, project financing, and technology validation over near-term cash generation.

The Metals Company has published two critical studies outlining the NORI-D project and broader resource potential, projecting a combined net present value exceeding $23 billion. This massive valuation underscores the scale of deep-ocean polymetallic nodule resources that TMC is targeting.

Operationally, TMC has achieved notable engineering milestones. The company has refined its nodule collector system with innovations including Coanda nozzles, minimized sediment ingestion, advanced buoyancy control, and plume management protocols—technologies refined across decades since the 1970s research era. Onshore processing advancements have proven equally significant: TMC has successfully converted nodule-derived manganese silicate into battery-grade manganese sulfate, complementing prior production of nickel and cobalt sulfates. This full precursor cathode active material (pCAM) compatibility demonstrates processing pathway viability.

Regulatory progress is central to TMC’s value creation narrative. Throughout 2025, the company achieved full compliance for exploration applications, advanced toward permit certification, and aligned commercial recovery timelines to Q4 2027. Partnership expansion with Nauru, Tonga, Allseas, and Korea Zinc has strengthened offshore operational capacity and U.S. supply chain integration prospects.

Financially, TMC maintains a manageable balance sheet despite zero current revenues. The company holds $165 million in cash reserves with over $400 million in potential warrant upside, mitigating near-term liquidity pressures. The long-term production model projects EBITDA margins approaching 50% by 2040 as refining operations attain scale—a compelling payoff if development milestones are successfully navigated.

Evaluating Risk-Reward Positioning

UAMY and TMC represent opposite ends of the critical minerals development spectrum. UAMY delivers immediate operational momentum, with expanding antimony production, domestic mining establishment, and processing capacity additions generating near-term revenue and earnings expansion. TMC pursues a far-reaching seabed-to-battery ecosystem targeting transformation of U.S. nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper supply chains—a vision contingent on successful regulatory passage, technology scaling, and strategic partnership execution.

Both companies advance U.S. strategic interests in supply chain resilience. However, their risk architectures diverge sharply: UAMY offers established operational traction with visible near-term cash generation, while TMC promises substantial future scale conditional upon achieving multiple development and regulatory milestones over a multi-year timeline.

Current analyst assessments reflect this divergence. UAMY carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) rating, suggesting that despite favorable fundamentals, valuation correction may persist following the recent rally. TMC holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) designation, recommending position maintenance for existing investors as the company progresses toward commercial-phase operations.