#降息预期 Seeing the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot, the rate cut expectations have been lowered again—only 25 basis points left in 2026, with 7 out of 19 officials still advocating no cut. This shift is worth a careful analysis.

Remember those voices at the beginning of the year saying "Rate cuts are coming, get on board"? Now, expectations are being revised back and forth, and every time they are revised, a wave of people chase the high and get caught. This is the warning I want to give everyone—the more uncertain the macro expectations, the greater the space for market manipulators to cut the leeks.

The key point is this: the rate cut cycle has been significantly delayed, which means dollar liquidity won't be as loose as the market expects, and the crypto circle fears this kind of "expectation gap." When expectations shift from "rate cuts in 2025" to "possibly in 2026," leveraged positions will be ruthlessly liquidated. I've seen too many people blow up because they bet on a story of "inevitable rate cuts," only to get wiped out in volatility.

The current strategy should be: don't follow the trend of expectations, but prepare for both scenarios. The delay in rate cuts means the crypto market may have to endure a high-interest environment for a while longer, and the appeal of risk assets will weaken accordingly. Don't be brainwashed by the phrase "rate cuts are coming and will push prices up." In this kind of uncertainty, risk prevention always comes first.

Only those who endure can laugh last.