Q3 Nuclear Energy Stocks: Winners Rise While Stars Falter Under Market Pressure

The nuclear energy sector has emerged as one of 2025’s hottest investment trends, alongside AI and quantum computing. As of mid-November, the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR) has surged 55%, yet recent quarterly earnings have created a stark divide—some companies thrived while others took serious hits.

The Market’s Darlings Face Unexpected Headwinds

NuScale Power’s Stumble

NuScale Power (SMR) epitomizes the volatility plaguing pre-revenue nuclear firms. The stock rocketed nearly 200% through October before collapsing roughly 61% from its highs. The culprit? A brutal Q3 earnings miss that left investors reeling.

The company reported a per-share loss of $1.85, nearly 17 times worse than the forecasted 11-cent loss. Behind this shortfall lay a $128.5 million payment to ENTRA1 Energy aimed at fast-tracking a six-gigawatt nuclear deployment with the Tennessee Valley Authority. While strategically sound for long-term growth, the immediate financial pain was undeniable.

On November 6, NuScale shares plummeted 14% at the open, continuing to slide daily thereafter. The selloff has erased 45% since the earnings release, with Royal Bank of Canada cutting its price target from $35 to $32. The market’s message was clear: ambitious spending doesn’t excuse disappointing results.

Constellation Energy’s Mixed Signals

Constellation Energy (CEG), America’s largest nuclear operator, delivered its own earnings disappointment. The company missed on both revenue and adjusted earnings per share, yet the stock surprisingly gained 2% on the announcement day.

The reason? Forward guidance and transformative M&A activity. Constellation maintained its full-year adjusted EPS guidance and provided an update on its Calpine acquisition, expected to close by year-end. This deal would make Constellation the nation’s largest clean energy provider with coast-to-coast infrastructure.

Management projects the Calpine acquisition will boost adjusted EPS by over 20% in 2026, with an additional $2 per share contribution in subsequent years—a meaningful increment against projected 2025 adjusted EPS of $9.05 to $9.45. Citigroup responded to this strategic vision by raising its Constellation price target from $337 to $368, signaling confidence that near-term earnings weakness masks longer-term value creation.

The Outsider’s Surprise Victory

Oklo (OKLO) presents a fascinating counterpoint. The firm reported a 20-cent loss per share versus the projected 13-cent miss—a failure by conventional metrics. Yet shares surged nearly 7% the day after earnings.

The breakthrough came from Washington. The U.S. Department of Energy greenlit Oklo’s Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for its Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility, clearing regulatory hurdles for the company’s used nuclear fuel recycling technology. This milestone triggered analyst enthusiasm, with B. Riley doubling its price target from $58 to $129. Wedbush and Cantor Fitzgerald issued targets of $150 and $122, respectively. Only Bank of America tempered expectations, trimming from $117 to $111, yet the consensus remained decidedly bullish.

Despite this analyst support, Oklo remains down 45% from mid-October peaks, reflecting the sector-wide selloff. However, shares are still up nearly 350% year-to-date, underscoring the speculative fervor surrounding nuclear innovation.

The Broader Reckoning

Recent weeks have been brutal for the nuclear sector. Since October 15, the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF has declined approximately 23%, with momentum-dependent stocks bearing the brunt of profit-taking.

Among the three firms examined, Oklo’s earnings received the warmest reception, though even this wasn’t enough to prevent the stock from tracking the sector lower. The market appears to be repricing nuclear names as investors rotate out of highly speculative positions.

The divergence between fundamentals and price action illustrates a critical market dynamic: positive regulatory developments and acquisition upside can only do so much when broader sentiment turns negative. For now, the nuclear sector remains a tale of conflicting narratives—long-term technological promise meeting short-term profit-driven selling pressure.