Wheat Futures Face Broad Weakness as Global Supply Pressures Persist

Wheat markets opened Wednesday with widespread declines across all major trading venues, reflecting ongoing concerns about abundant worldwide grain inventories from key exporting nations. The selling pressure extended from Tuesday’s close, marking a continuation of bearish sentiment that has gripped the complex.

Price Action Across Contracts

Chicago SRW futures led losses with declines ranging from 9 to 11 1/4 cents across most delivery months, while new selling activity drove open interest higher by 16,479 contracts. Kansas City HRW futures shed 6 to 7 cents at the close with open interest gaining 4,519 contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat showed more modest pressure, retreating 2 to 3 3/4 cents in front-month trading—representing a broader market dynamic where pressure measured in cents per 100 acres of production indicates substantial selling in cash market equivalents.

Supply Dynamics Weighing on Markets

The fundamental backdrop remains decidedly bearish. Large exportable supplies held by major wheat-producing regions continue casting a shadow over pricing, while weather forecasts suggest a drier pattern moving into much of the Southern Plains through the coming week. However, NOAA’s 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates SRW-producing areas could receive up to an inch of rainfall, potentially affecting planting decisions across significant acreage.

International Demand and Supply Updates

On the demand side, a South Korean importer pulled 20,800 MT of U.S. wheat overnight, providing modest support. Meanwhile, the European wheat market shows weakness in export flows, with EU soft wheat shipments totaling 10.5 MMT from July through mid-December, lagging the prior-year pace by 0.3 MMT. France’s farm ministry revised 2026 soft wheat acreage estimates to 4.56 million hectares (11.25 million acres), reflecting a 0.1 million hectare increase from previous forecasts.

Contract Settlements and Current Levels

March 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.09 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents, currently trading 1 cent lower. May 26 CBOT Wheat finished at $5.19 1/2, off 9 1/2 cents. March 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.05, down 7 cents, with May 26 KCBT Wheat at $5.17 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents. Spring wheat contracts showed relative resilience, with March 26 MGEX Wheat unchanged at $5.65 after falling 3 3/4 cents, and May 26 MGEX Wheat at $5.76 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents.

The convergence of ample global supplies and moderate demand remains the dominant force shaping wheat futures direction heading into the week.