Why Wall Street Sees 75-150% Upside in These Two Beaten-Down Growth Stocks

The Market Is Pricing In Too Much Pessimism

When stocks crash hard from their highs, it often signals opportunity rather than danger. Take The Trade Desk and MercadoLibre—both have plummeted 71% and 24% respectively from their record peaks, but here’s what most investors are missing: 42 analysts covering The Trade Desk see a median upside of 53%, with the most bullish call targeting 150% gains. Meanwhile, MercadoLibre’s 27 analyst consensus points to 42% upside potential, with a high estimate implying 75% returns.

These aren’t fringe predictions. They’re the collective view of Wall Street’s research desks after serious analysis. So why has the market been so harsh on these names?

The Trade Desk: A Misunderstood Competitive Moat

The Trade Desk dominates the demand-side platform market for open internet advertising—essentially, it’s the software that helps advertisers buy, measure, and optimize digital ad campaigns across independent publishers, apps, and streaming services.

Here’s the critical insight most bears are getting wrong: The Trade Desk’s independence is its greatest strength. Competitors like Alphabet and Meta own their own advertising inventory, creating an inherent conflict of interest. Publishers naturally hesitate to share performance data with companies that are also their rivals. This asymmetry gives The Trade Desk superior measurement and targeting capabilities across the broader internet ecosystem.

The recent stock collapse stems from legitimate concerns—Amazon is aggressively undercutting The Trade Desk’s pricing and has secured exclusive deals for connected TV (CTV) inventory from Netflix and Roku. Connected TV is the fastest-growing advertising segment, and Amazon’s muscle clearly poses a threat.

Yet here’s the reality: consumers spend far more time on the open internet than in closed platforms owned by tech giants. That structural advantage isn’t going away. At a valuation of 45x earnings with forecasted annual growth of 20% over the next three years, The Trade Desk looks reasonably priced for what it offers. The Street’s median target sits at $60 per share (from a current $39), but BMO Capital’s Brian Pitz sees $98—a 150% upside scenario that doesn’t feel unreasonable given the company’s positioning.

MercadoLibre: Growth Through Strategic Reinvestment

MercadoLibre controls Latin America’s largest e-commerce marketplace in a region where online shopping penetration sits around 50% of US levels. That alone suggests enormous runway. The platform benefits from powerful network effects—each new buyer attracts sellers and vice versa, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

The company expanded its ecosystem beyond marketplace basics into advertising (commanding over 50% of Latin America’s retail ad spend), logistics (“the fastest and most extensive delivery network in the region”), and fintech services (the largest platform in Mexico and Argentina by monthly active users).

Q3 results revealed the complexity investors are grappling with: revenue jumped 39% to $7.4 billion—the 27th consecutive quarter exceeding 30% growth. Yet GAAP net income barely budged, rising just 6% to $8.32 per share. The culprit? Strategic spending on shipping infrastructure and credit card expansion.

This is where MercadoLibre separates smart investors from impatient traders. CFO Martin de los Santos noted that lower shipping thresholds in Brazil already accelerated both gross merchandise volume and purchase frequency. These investments aren’t destroying value—they’re fertilizing future growth. Wall Street forecasts 32% annual earnings growth over the next three years, making a 49x earnings multiple suddenly look attractive, not expensive.

At $1,999 per share—24% below all-time highs—MercadoLibre’s valuation reflects market skepticism rather than fundamental deterioration. Scotiabank’s highest target of $3,500 implies 75% upside potential.

The Contrarian Case

Both stocks have been punished by growth-stock pessimism and near-term margin concerns. Both trade at meaningful discounts to all-time highs despite maintaining industry leadership and executing strategic investments that should compound value over time. The spread between median analyst targets and current prices (53% for The Trade Desk, 42% for MercadoLibre) suggests the market has priced in worst-case scenarios rather than baseline cases.

For investors with a three-year horizon who can tolerate volatility, these valuations reward contrarian conviction.