Why are prices falling into negative territory? Why is the reaction so weak? Why are ETFs withdrawing from the market? It clearly forecasts that by 2026, we will face a completely different battlefield compared to the past.

#加密市场小幅回暖 #2026行情预测

Every time the bull-bear cycle shifts, it’s not just a rotation of prices but a revolutionary change in market orientation, capital structure, and volatility models — we are standing at such a historic turning point — a “Generational Shift” in the logic driving the market.

I. Short-term (Christmas period): This is the “liquidity gap” in the options market, not the start of a trend
At the end of 2018, 2022, we all experienced the “holiday effect.” The market characteristics are:
1. Pervasive fake agreements: Due to shallow market depth, a small amount of capital can create illusions of breaking through significant resistance, enticing chasing buy orders followed by quick reversals.
2. Suppressed and delayed volatility: Prices seem frozen, but that’s only calm before the storm. All low-liquidity suppressed fluctuations tend to release around major option expiration dates (12/27) or after institutional players return (early January), creating strong unidirectional movements.

Current action recommendations:
Avoid trading trend-following strategies based on “breakouts” or “breakdowns” within the narrow current range (BTC 86.5k-92k, ETH 2.94k-3.18k).
Feasible actions: Place “perception position” orders (e.g., BTC 81.5k, ETH 2.75k, UNI 5.4). If extreme shocks occur due to option expiration or liquidity shortages, these low-level orders are prepared for such moments. They help you capture profitable positions when no one is paying attention.
Core principle: Maintain a waiting attitude, let the market show itself. Your task is not to participate in this chaos but to protect capital and wait for everything to settle down.

II. Long-term (2026 Outlook): This is a revolution in “Transforming old models into new ones”
The core logic driving the crypto market over the past two years — “expectation of liquidity easing” — has faded. The market is painfully adapting to a new model: “Liquidity tightening at the margins, growth driven by real demand.”

Three resonant bull-bear cycles:
2013-2014: Orientation was “Point-to-Point Digital Cash,” driven by Mt.Gox and retail investors. After the bubble burst, the market realized that the “Payment” orientation was no longer suitable, entering a long phase of value discovery.
2017-2018: Orientation was “Global Computing” and ICOs, driven by global retail capital inflows. After the bubble burst, most applications turned out to be illusions, entering a “building phase.”
2020-2022: Orientation was “Organizationalization” and “Unlimited QE,” driven by global central banks pumping money. After the bubble burst, the market realized that “organizations” could also capitulate, requiring a more solid foundation.
Currently, we are in the “model establishment phase” of the fourth cycle: Orientation is “Digital Asset Storage/Payment,” but the main driver has shifted from “Central Bank’s monetary policy” to “Legitimate ETF purchases.” Essentially, this is a shift from “Macroe Liquidity Beta” to “Product Demand Alpha.”

Strategic breakthroughs in the next two years:
1. Forget the “halving price rally” orientation: The old experience formula has become less effective. Halving affects supply, but the 2026 peak will be determined by demand side (ETF net flow) and macro factors (interest rate cuts). The conclusion “120,000 is the new peak” based on the new formula in the report should be taken seriously.
2. You will become a “data trader”: The main rhythm in the future will shift from “FOMC meetings” to “Non-farm payroll release dates” and “Weekly ETF capital flow data.” The first determines macro sentiment, the second directly influences buying. Your trading schedule needs to be reorganized around these two milestones.
3. “Bitcoin’s algorithm” is shifting: It increasingly resembles a “highly volatile tech stock,” closely linked to Nasdaq, extremely sensitive to interest rates. This means that analyzing US stock markets and forecasting interest rates will be more accurate than on-chain data analysis for medium-term BTC trend prediction.
4. Major change in Altcoin logic: In a liquidity-scarce environment, capital will flow only into projects with clear orientation, real demand, and solid fundamentals. The “altcoin season” that once dominated will weaken, but the bull market will be extremely intense within its structural framework. That’s why we should focus on DeFi platforms (UNI), top L2s (OP), RWA standards (ONDO), as they represent “real demand.”

III. Overall Action Plan: From “believers” to “macro-micro dual-model traders”
Based on the above, your role must fully evolve:
1. At the strategic (macro long-term) level:
Closely monitor two charts: US non-farm payroll data, US CPI data. These determine the Fed’s “withdrawal pace.”
Monitor the only capital flow: Weekly net flow of US Bitcoin ETF. This is the “thermometer” and “speedometer” of the trend.
Build a new price framework: Adjust BTC’s main fluctuation range to $80,000 (strong support) - $120,000 (new resistance). Conduct large trades within this range.
2. At the tactical (micro short-term) level:
Implement our “ultimate combat plan,” but the timing of buy orders should incorporate more of the above data. For example, during “non-farm payroll day,” if the market crashes due to poor data, execute “main force” accumulation.
Be more selective with Altcoins: Invest only in projects that still generate real revenue during bear markets, have abundant reserves, and active developers (meaning “projects still under construction”). Use operational data to replace empty directional assumptions as investment basis.
Adjust profit-taking expectations: The ultimate BTC target from “150-200K” realistically shifts to “120-130K.” This helps you stay calm when exiting at the peak and lock in profits.
In essence, experienced traders are those who can recognize all harsh realities, then develop meticulous, calm, feasible plans, and execute like a machine. ​This report does not kill the market; it only eliminates unrealistic illusions and clearly defines for us — those well-prepared — a new, more complex battlefield.

Currently, the hunting rules have been updated; stay patient and wait for the new rules’ siren to sound.