#降息预期 Recently, after reviewing the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, I have some thoughts I want to share with everyone.

The market has been highly optimistic about rate cuts, but based on this meeting, the hawkish voices are growing stronger. Voting members like Goolsbee and Schmidt have made their positions very clear — inflation risks are still present, and there’s no rush to loosen policy. Powell is also signaling that the likelihood of a rate cut in January next year has significantly decreased, and the threshold for subsequent policy adjustments has clearly been raised.

What does this mean for our asset allocation? My understanding is that this policy shift, while likely to cause short-term volatility and discomfort, serves as a reminder for prudent investors — don’t be carried away by market emotions. Changes in the interest rate environment will affect the attractiveness of various assets, and it’s more important than ever to return to fundamentals and review whether your positions are overly concentrated in one direction.

Especially when expectations reverse, it’s often a test of whether our risk management has been properly implemented. Maintaining sufficient liquidity reserves, avoiding full positions, and regularly reviewing asset allocation — these basic practices never go out of style. The market will find its own balance, and what we need to do is stay calm and let time validate our choices.