#通货膨胀 Seeing Powell's speech this time, I couldn't help but recall the scenes before and after the 2008 crisis. Back then, the Federal Reserve was also swinging back and forth between inflation and employment, and ultimately, the market paid a heavy price for it.

Today’s situation feels familiar. Three consecutive rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points, seem on the surface to be a signal of liquidity easing, but the dot plot reveals the true intention—only one rate cut next year. This discrepancy itself is quite telling. Goldman Sachs put it plainly: the preemptive rate cuts are over, and the next focus is whether the labor market can weaken further.

The key phrase is that inflation is still "slightly elevated." This is not an insignificant modifier; it indicates that the Fed remains cautious. History shows that when central banks emphasize inflation risks during rate-cut cycles, it often signals that the policy shift is approaching. Similar language changes appeared before the 2015 rate hike and the end of rate cuts at the end of 2018.

For crypto assets, this is a delicate moment. Bitcoin surged to around 94,000 after the rate cut announcement, then fell back to around 91,000. This reaction pattern reflects the market’s real dilemma—loose policy may have reached a ceiling, and the true turning point depends on the direction of employment data.

Having gone through several cycles, I’ve learned not to rely on a single policy move. The key is the confirmation of the trend. If non-farm payroll data in December and January continue to be weak, there may still be room to the downside; conversely, in the second half of the year, we should be mentally prepared for rate hikes. It’s too early to say now, but doing your homework in advance is never wrong.