How much longer can the Yen hold? 155.70 is already a warning line.

The Bank of Japan has repeatedly raised interest rates, but the Yen shows little sign of strength. Recently, a consensus has been circulating in the market—that this is not just short-term volatility, but a structural weakness. Major institutions like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas are warning: by the end of 2026, the Yen could depreciate to 160, or even break through 165.

The numbers are quite sobering. The Yen has only appreciated by less than 1% this year, and the rebound in April was even scared back by Trump's tariffs. Currently, the trading price hovers around 155.70, getting closer to the year's low. Arbitrage trading has become active again, with large funds leveraging short positions on the Yen at the highest level in 7 months.

Funds are flowing out. Retail investors are busy buying overseas assets, listed companies are frequently engaging in mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border corporate investments haven't stopped. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is also putting pressure on the Yen, making it hard to breathe.

Officials keep talking about intervention, but honestly—mere verbal warnings can't stop this wave of depreciation.

Where is the real turning point? No one can say for sure. The next round of policy adjustments will be crucial in determining the Yen's fate. It all depends on who can get in first at the bottom—those who do may reap the benefits of this interest rate differential arbitrage.