Detailed analysis

Currently, BTC is in a long-term upward channel, with a clear trend-following characteristic on the weekly/monthly level. After rebounding from the bottom, the price has remained stable above the 200-day moving average (around $80,000) and has tested this support multiple times without breaking it, indicating solid long-term buying power. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have formed a golden cross and are diverging upwards, while the MACD histogram continues to rise, and the ADX value remains above 30, indicating good trend strength. The historical support level of 87172.19 has been tested multiple times but has not been effectively broken, constituting strong support; the resistance zone of 95000-100000 is a previous area of concentrated trading, representing a potential pressure point. On the fundamental side, continuous inflow of institutional funds, expectations for ETF expansion, and a macro liquidity easing environment support long-term bullish sentiment. Although there is a short-term correction currently, it has not damaged the main trend and is close to trend continuation rather than reversal.

Operating Suggestions
Trading Strategy
Trend Following Strategy ( Turtle Trading Rules )
Trading Direction
Bullish, reason: Long-term moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, prices have effectively broken through key resistance and stabilized support, and the trend momentum is sufficient.
Entry Strategy
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Suggested entry price: $87172.19 (confirming no breakdown upon retest) or chase after breaking $90000 to confirm trend continuation.
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Entry timing: Stabilize on a pullback to the 50-day moving average or break through the 200-day moving average with increased volume.
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Position allocation: For long-term investment, it is recommended to allocate 40% of the total capital, divided into 3 batches: the first batch 30%, the second batch 30%, and the third batch 40%.
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Batch position building: reduce volatility risk and avoid being caught in a position by entering all at once.
Stop-loss strategy
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Stop-loss price level: $78000 (about 10% below the 50-day moving average)
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Stop-loss reason: Breaking this level indicates that the long-term trend has been damaged, and market sentiment has reversed.
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Maximum single loss: No more than 6% of total capital.
Take profit strategy
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Target Level 1: $95000 (first long-term resistance level), reduce position by 25%
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Target Level 2: $105000 (secondary resistance level), reduce position by 35%
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Target 3: $120,000 (ultimate target), remaining position held
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Long-term holding: If the trend continues, you can move the stop loss to the 200-day moving average to protect profits, holding positions for weeks to months.
Risk Warning
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Long-term trading requires patience, avoiding premature exit due to short-term pullbacks.
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Pay attention to fundamental factors such as Federal Reserve policies, regulatory changes, miner costs, and on-chain data.
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Regularly review, decisively execute stop-loss when trends are broken, discipline takes precedence over prediction.