The current discussions about bulls and bears are becoming increasingly strong in market consensus—many people agree that we have entered a Bear Market. However, if we look at the sentiment indicators of long-term holders, the situation is a bit interesting: it currently remains in the green zone, which is the intersection of "belief and doubt." And this "doubt" is actually the most authentic mainstream mentality in the current market.

Looking closely at the data, there has indeed been a brief touch of the yellow zone recently (a signal of optimism turning into anxiety). If prices continue to decline, a further deterioration in sentiment is certainly foreseeable. But the key point is that—based on the actual behavior of long-term holders—there are no signs of the typical bear market's large-scale systemic withdrawals or panic sell-offs.

There's another detail that illustrates the issue well: the BTC inventory on the exchange has been steadily decreasing. What does this mean? It means that the chips willing to be sold are gradually diminishing, and more and more BTC is being transferred to long-term holding cold wallets, while large funds are quietly accumulating.

Then the question arises - since there are people continuously buying, why is the price still falling? The answer is actually quite simple: the current buying behavior is mostly passive and allocation-based, belonging to structural adjustments, changing the supply pattern rather than short-term price behavior. In simple terms, the willingness to sell is weakening, but short-term funds are still engaged in repeated speculation.

From the perspective of turnover rate, there are still a large number of day traders active in the market, and prices are mainly being pulled back and forth by this part of short-term capital, while long-term capital has gradually exited the stage of pricing power. This also explains why liquidity seems good now, but the real effective liquidity continues to shrink—short-term speculation and long-term allocation have completely diverged.