U.S. Economic Calendar Highlights This Week: Three Major Data Points Determine Market Trends

This week’s Federal Reserve data releases will be the key to determining the strength of the US dollar and the trend of crypto assets. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $87,400, up 2.08%, as the market closely watches whether economic data will alter the Fed’s policy expectations.

Key Date 1: November 21 Manufacturing and Services PMI

PMI data is expected to remain above 50, indicating that the US economy is still in expansion. If the PMI unexpectedly rises above expectations, it will reinforce market expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates. What will be the result? The US dollar will further appreciate, and gold and cryptocurrencies will face greater downward pressure. Conversely, if the PMI unexpectedly weakens, it may signal signs of economic slowdown, prompting the market to reassess the timing of rate cuts, and risk assets could rebound.

Key Date 2: November 20 Philadelphia Fed Housing Data

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing and housing sales data are expected to be -1.4, which is a relatively positive signal. Although the figure is negative, it has improved compared to previous forecasts, suggesting that the housing market is bottoming out. Even if the Fed maintains high interest rates, the real estate sector shows unexpected resilience. This is a positive signal for the overall economy, but it also prolongs the Fed’s tightening cycle.

The Most Critical Observation: November 19 FOMC Minutes

The FOMC minutes are the true “black swan” of this week. The minutes will reveal Fed officials’ views on the future policy direction. If the wording hints at a possible acceleration of rate cuts, the market will immediately adjust—weakening the dollar and prompting a rebound in cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if the tone is hawkish, insisting on “maintaining high interest rates for a longer period,” the dollar will be supported, and risk assets like Bitcoin will face selling pressure.

Market Logic: US Dollar vs Crypto Assets

In simple terms, this week’s data releases revolve around the same core question: When will the Fed truly change its policy stance? As long as economic data remains strong, the US dollar will stay under upward pressure, and the upside potential for cryptocurrencies will be limited. But as soon as any signs of weakness appear, especially deterioration in manufacturing activity or employment data, market expectations for rate cuts will heat up, and risk appetite will quickly rebound.