#Polymarket预测市场争议 Seeing this prediction on Polymarket, I find it quite interesting. A 45% chance predicts that Bitcoin could still rise to $100,000 this year, which is indeed a significant figure. However, I am more concerned about the flow of funds behind it and the movements of major players. Further analysis of on-chain data is needed to examine recent large transfers and inflows and outflows on exchanges to assess the credibility of this prediction. After all, prediction markets may also be manipulated, so simply looking at the probability number is of little significance. Next, I will focus on tracking the movements of several large Bitcoin wallets to see if there are any anomalies.