#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve has taken action! It cut interest rates by 25 basis points and restarted the $40 billion short-term government bond purchase program. The market has been buzzing, with voices of a "liquidity-driven bull market" ringing nonstop.

However, researcher Adam from Greeks.Live has poured cold water on the market. He pointed out that it's premature to declare the restart of QE as the bullish signal, and there are three main points worth cautioning:

First is the "liquidity crunch" at year-end. With Christmas holidays approaching and annual financial settlements imminent, active market funds have significantly decreased, and trading volumes have shrunk, dampening the momentum for market rally.

Second, from the real reactions in the options market, the issues are clearer. Options positions expiring at the end of December account for over 50%, providing a tangible market expectation—BTC's pain point is at $100,000, and ETH's at $3,200. This usually indicates that the market expects volatility to contract in the near term, with the chances of large upward or downward moves diminishing.

Moreover, overall sentiment remains weak, with buying momentum severely lacking. A "gradual decline" might actually become the norm before the end of the year.

Of course, the market is never short of surprises. Even the calmest waters can suddenly stir with large waves—major shifts in regulatory policies, sudden institutional fund inflows, any of these triggers can instantly reverse the situation and trigger violent reversals.

Therefore, the key is: when the market appears most "lifeless," it's actually the time to stay alert. Will this end-of-year rally be a "golden pit" or a "slow bleed"? What is the likelihood of a sudden positive surprise? The answers depend on how the market unfolds in the coming weeks.