Bernstein: The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle May No Longer Apply, Institutional Capital Is Rewriting Bull Market Rules

2025-12-08 14:42:20

[Bitpush] The well-known Wall Street firm Bernstein recently released a research report with a pretty disruptive view—they believe that Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” pattern might fail this time.

The data is indeed interesting: although BTC has recently dropped by almost 30%, ETF outflows are less than 5%. What does this indicate? Institutional funds are not panicking at all—they’re still holding on. Retail investors might be selling at a loss, but the big money isn’t budging.

Based on this logic, Bernstein adjusted their expectations: they now see $150,000 by the end of 2026, and the true peak of this cycle could be delayed until 2027, targeting $200,000. Even more surprisingly, their long-term target (2033) remains at the $1 million level.

The core conclusion in one sentence: this round isn’t the traditional four-year bull-bear cycle, but a supercycle extended by institutional capital. Sticky big money is rewriting the rules of the game.

BTC-2.78%

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CounterIndicator

· 16h ago

Institutions quietly accumulate chips while retail investors cut their losses—this is the story now. Wait, can $200,000 really be reached? I feel like Bernstein might be a bit too optimistic this time. The idea of a four-year cycle failure is interesting, but doesn't that just mean that big funds have more influence... It should have been like this a long time ago. I really can't understand how the figure of 1 million was calculated, but extending the cycle actually makes me feel more at ease. When will retail investors who cut their losses finally break even? That's the question, the question.

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CascadingDipBuyer

· 12-08 15:11

Institutions really are playing a different game, while us retail investors are still looking at the four-year cycle—they've already broken out of it. ETF outflows are less than 5%. That's an incredible figure, showing that big money doesn't even care about a 30% drop. $200,000 in 2027 sounds great, but who knows if we'll even make it till then. This is the real supercycle; the four-year cycle should have retired long ago. When institutions enter the market, they completely disrupt the patterns of retail investors like us. $1 million by 2033? Let's hit the 2027 target first before talking about that. Honestly, it's still all about the difference in capital; we just can't keep up. Sticky big capital is just strong, and what can we do with our little principal? Pushed back to 2027—maybe these next two years really won't be as exciting as we imagined. The old patterns have completely failed; we need to relearn the logic of institutions.

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Blockwatcher9000

· 12-08 15:01

Retail investors are selling at a loss while institutions are accumulating. Why does this script feel so familiar to me... --- $200,000? In 2027? Bro, aren’t you overestimating a bit? Who knows if we’ll even survive to see the market by then. --- While institutions are bottom-fishing, we’re still stuck on Chan Theory. The gap is just unreal. --- ETF outflow is less than 5%... Alright, I believe it, this wave really is different. --- To put it bluntly, big money is shaking out the market, while us retail investors are still singing on the rooftop, begging. --- $1,000,000 by 2033? Why does that just sound so far-fetched to me? It’s even more exaggerated than a prophecy. --- So the four-year cycle doesn’t work anymore? Then what do we rely on to make judgments? Guess we’re still at the mercy of the institutions.

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LiquidityNinja

· 12-08 15:01

Institutions have really changed the rules of the game, while retail investors are still waiting for the cycle, BTW. The capital is just dragging out the market like this, and $200,000 seems out of reach...

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MetaMasked

· 12-08 14:58

Institutions are really changing the rules of the game, while retail investors are still waiting for the four-year cycle. They've already switched strategies. --- ETF outflows are only 5%. This data really deserves a closer look. The big players aren't afraid of a drop at all. --- $200,000, $1,000,000... I just want to know if I can survive until 2027 this time, haha. --- Has the four-year cycle failed? Feels like it's all about when institutions make their move now. --- Retail investors cutting losses vs. institutions as solid as a rock. So, what's the next move in this situation? --- The term "supercycle" sounds intimidating, but the data actually has some substance. --- Hmm, institutions are sitting tight like a mountain. What about us, just waiting to get harvested? --- 2027 is the real top? Then how strong-willed do you have to be to buy now? --- Bernstein has released another big prediction. Is it reliable this time, or is it just another round of retail investors getting fleeced?

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MetaverseHomeless

· 12-08 14:46

Institutions really aren’t afraid of a drop, while we retail investors are still shivering in fear. ETF outflows are only 5%? That means the big money already bought the dip, and we’re still hesitating about cutting our losses. $200,000? By then, I’ll probably still be eating dirt. This time it really is different—the rules of the game for the wealthy have changed. The four-year cycle is broken, the supercycle is here, and the whales are winning big. Sounds nice, but it’s still just institutions giving retail investors a lesson. Will it really reach $200,000 by 2027? I choose not to believe it, but I also choose not to sell. Institutions buy the dip, retail buys the top—classic playbook. If it really could hit $1,000,000, I’d have gotten rich already. I’ll just lay low for now. This round really is dominated by big money; we just need to follow along and get some scraps.

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