#数字货币市场洞察 🔥 In the first week of December, two signals lit up simultaneously: the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is locked at $6.6 trillion and no longer shrinking, officially marking the end of quantitative tightening; for next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the CME tool shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has soared to 87%.

To put it simply—after draining liquidity for over three years, the Fed has finally stopped.

**Let’s look at what the market has gone through in these three years:**
Since 2022, $95 billion has disappeared from the market every month, $BTC has been suppressed from a high of $126,000 all the way down to $83,000, with $1.5 trillion in market cap wiped out. Leverage blew up, institutions pulled back, retail investors gave up—the core reason boils down to two words: lack of money.

**Now the situation has changed:**
$13.5 billion was injected into the market in a single day through overnight repo operations (the second largest scale since 2020), which is essentially a restart of easing. More importantly, the balance sheet will no longer be compressed, and the $6 billion in maturing MBS funds each month will automatically flow back into the market—this isn’t QE, but the effect is almost the same.

**Institutions have been front-running:**
• Vanguard, which manages $11.6 trillion, suddenly lifted restrictions and opened ETF channels for $BTC, $ETH, SOL, and XRP
• BlackRock quietly bought 1.2 million $ETH over the past week
• JPMorgan launched a 1.5x leveraged BTC structured product
• On-chain data shows 47,292 new $BTC added to self-custody addresses
• ETF fund flows reversed this week, with a net inflow of $176 million

**The only risk to watch: Bank of Japan**
The Bank of Japan meets December 18-19. If they really hike by 25 basis points, yen carry trades could trigger a short-term selloff. But history tells us: the Fed’s liquidity always trumps Japan’s tightening. 2019 was a vivid example—yen ultimately capitulated and $BTC surged 250%.

**Three final truths:**
• November was a shakeout, December is a recovery, the real bull run may not arrive until 2026
• Keep 30% cash for emergencies, allocate the rest in batches, don’t chase highs and don’t go all-in
• Now isn’t the time to ask if you dare enter, but how much firepower you have left

The liquidity tap has been turned on; now it’s a matter of who can hold on. Miss this cycle and the next window might not come for another four years.