Rate cuts are here, but don’t pop the champagne just yet—especially if you’re a company hoarding crypto.

Let’s start with what the Fed is up to: last week, the balance sheet shrank by another $16.6 billion, bringing the total to $6.85 trillion. Since December 1, Treasuries are no longer rolling off, and all maturing MBS proceeds are going into short-term debt. What does this mean? Quantitative tightening is basically over, and we’re now in the so-called “ample reserves maintenance” mode.

The market has already voted with its feet. For the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the odds for a 25bps rate cut are priced at 86.2%. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock—all five giants are betting on a December cut, two more in 2026, with the final rate range at 3.0%-3.25%. No matter how much the hawks shout about “over-easing,” they can’t stop the trend.

For most risk assets, this is good news. But for public companies that loaded up their balance sheets with Bitcoin? That’s a different story.

Remember the bloodbath in October? Bitcoin spot dropped from $122,000 to $107,000—a 12% dip. As a result, the 84 publicly listed companies holding BTC saw an average plunge of 27%, with more than a dozen losing over 40%, which in turn pushed spot prices down another 5%.

After combing through financial reports, CoinTab uncovered a harsher reality: 73% of these crypto-holding companies also carry debt, and for 39%, their debt exceeds the market value of their coins. This isn’t “strategic reserves”—it’s a leverage game. Rate cuts will lower their debt costs, but if there’s another major dip in coin prices…

So yes, rate cuts are bullish, but it depends on who you are. For pure spot holders, it’s easy money; for those leveraged up, it might just be a temporary reprieve.