#数字货币市场洞察 There are 4 days left until that critical moment, and the probability of a rate cut has now soared to over 90%. To be honest, the market has long been expecting a 25 basis point cut.

I've considered a few possible scenarios:

First, a 25 basis point cut—this is basically a done deal (99% probability). In this case, the market will most likely remain range-bound or see a small uptick. However, be wary of Powell's speech—if his comments are hawkish, there could be a short-term pullback, but it shouldn't be too dramatic.

Second, a direct 50 basis point cut—only a 1% probability, this would be a huge surprise. The current pricing doesn't account for this at all, so if it actually happens, the market will definitely go wild and the rally would be very strong.

Third, holding rates steady—this would be a major surprise. If expectations aren't met, sentiment could collapse instantly and the market could plunge below previous lows.

Fourth, a reverse 25 basis point hike—this would be a pure black swan event. If it actually happens, the market would get hammered, but the chances are basically zero.

My view? It's almost certainly going to be a 25 basis point cut; a 50 basis point cut only exists in theory.