Recently, market sentiment has been quite conflicted. On one hand, coin prices are struggling to fall further, but on the other hand, rebounds are lacking strength. The core reason is that everyone’s eyes are on the Fed—CME data shows that the probability of a 25bps rate cut in December is already close to 90%, which has become an invisible price cushion.

However, it’s important to note that any current upward movement is simply “speculation on expectations” and not closely tied to actual news. When the rate cut is actually implemented, if the magnitude does not meet market expectations, there could be a “sell the news” reversal. Only a more dovish stance than expected can break this stalemate. In the long run, once the rate cut cycle is truly established, the US dollar’s trend will guide coin prices back to a more normal valuation range.

From a technical perspective, BTC is fluctuating within the 88,000-90,000 box on the daily chart. Although there was a small rise over the weekend, it’s essentially sideways consolidation after a drop. The hourly highs are gradually being pushed lower, and bulls and bears are currently balanced.

In terms of indicators, the hourly MACD bars just turned from green to red, but both DIF and DEA remain in negative territory, indicating bears still have the short-term upper hand; the daily MACD is still below the zero axis, reflecting continued weakness. RSI is at 46.78 on the hourly chart—neither hot nor cold; the daily RSI has climbed to 42.84 but hasn’t entered the strong zone yet.

Moving average resistance is quite obvious. The hourly EMA7 was just touched near 89,516, forming short-term support, but the EMA30 and EMA120 above are pressing down hard. All three daily moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, presenting significant long-term resistance.

**Trading Range Reference (12.7)**

Bitcoin strategy:
- Consider light short positions if rebounding to the 90,600-89,600 range, with stops above 91,600, targeting 87,500-86,500.
- If retracing to around 85,500-86,500, consider long positions, with stops below 84,500 and targets at 87,500-88,500.

Ethereum strategy:
- Look for short opportunities in the 3,100-3,060 range, with stops above 3,150 and targets at 3,000-2,960; if that breaks, continue to watch for 2,880.
- For dips into the 2,890-2,940 support area, consider long positions, with stops below 2,840 and targets at 2,990-3,040.

Final reminder: These are just technical analysis reference ranges and do not constitute investment advice. The market changes rapidly—specific operations should be based on real-time price action, and always manage your position size and stop-losses.