Bitcoin activity continues to rise. Is this cycle really coming to an end?

[On-chain Notes] Recently, I’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon—the on-chain activity of Bitcoin is still on the rise. What could this suggest? Maybe this bull run isn’t over yet.

First, let’s talk about what the activity metric actually is. Simply put, it sums up all the on-chain token trading and holding behaviors. Tokens changing hands frequently? Activity rises. Everyone hoarding and not moving their coins? Activity drops. Plus, this metric adjusts for how long tokens have existed, making it a kind of long-term moving average for on-chain activity.

What do we usually see during a bull market? Activity shoots up. That’s because supply is changing hands at high prices, indicating new capital is entering the market. Once demand weakens, this momentum slows down and the metric falls accordingly. The logic is pretty straightforward.

But this time, it’s a bit different. Even though the price action hasn’t looked great lately, activity is still trending upwards. What does this mean? There’s actually a baseline demand for spot Bitcoin, it’s just not showing up on the price chart yet.

Of course, it’s worth noting that activity is usually a lagging indicator and can’t be used as a real-time trading signal. But based on current data, its momentum is still positive. This indicates that some large players are active in the market. Who they are and what exactly they’re doing, we can’t say. But at the very least, it shows that this market isn’t dead yet.