#美联储重启降息步伐 The recent market trend has become a bit hard to read, hasn’t it? Personally, I lean toward a cautious bearish outlook, and here are a few reasons why:

The rate cut—honestly, the market caught wind of it a long time ago. Traders already priced it in through the futures market when the Fed made its moves. Now, when it actually happens, it might turn into a “sell the news” event—the rally has already happened, and we could see a pullback.

Looking at the charts, this $BTC rebound is actually pretty weak. On the daily chart, it’s already hitting resistance at the 30-day moving average. The previous surge to around 94100 was mostly driven by exchange-specific news, but structurally, it’s still on the weaker side. This kind of rebound is common in a downtrend, but it doesn’t change the overall direction.

The buzz around Japan’s rate cut didn’t last long either. If this trend continues, it could trigger more short-selling sentiment ahead of time—after all, once expectations are met, the market tends to move in the opposite direction.

Zooming out, it’s even clearer. Everyone knows about crypto’s four-year cycle, and at this pace, we could be entering a bear market around 2026. In a broader downward trend, a rebound is just a rebound—don’t expect it to reverse the trend, and the lows are likely to get lower.

Also, keep an eye on the US stock market. Indices are almost at all-time highs, and after so much growth thanks to policy stimulus, we might see some profit-taking around Christmas. Once capital pulls out of traditional markets, crypto won’t be immune.

If I were to trade, I’d consider shorting in batches:

For $BTC , consider entering in the 90000 to 91500 range—don’t go all in at once, build your position gradually with 3%, 5%, and 10% increments. The first bearish target would be 83600, or 78800 if you want to be more aggressive.

Same logic for $ETH —build positions around 3060 to 3100 in batches, with the first target at 2660 and a second, more aggressive target at 2350.

Of course, this is just my personal view based on the current market environment and does not constitute investment advice. The market can change in an instant, so risk management should always be your top priority.