Lately, the market has started repeating the old tune again—"macro is the baton." As soon as the PCE data looks a bit better, someone immediately shouts that the Fed is about to start easing, liquidity is coming, and the crypto market is ready to take off.

Sounds reasonable. But this talk has been on a loop since last year, and "hold your chips and wait for the wind" is practically a catchphrase now. The problem is, after a year of chanting this mantra, account balances haven't grown much.

So let's be honest: is just watching the macro enough?

Not at all. Macro is like checking the weather forecast, telling you tomorrow will be sunny. But if you want to get in the water today, you need to check what the sea actually looks like now. If the market is lying there like a dead fish and the money is still waiting on the sidelines, "sunny weather" is just background music.

Here are a few of my recent takeaways:

**Don't treat macro as an alarm clock.** It determines the overall climate, but it's not a precise buy/sell switch. If you really want to take action, you still need to see if the chart shows your favorite patterns and whether there's real money flowing in.

**Be careful when everyone is bullish.** When everyone is telling the same story, most of the good news is already priced in. The real opportunities often hide in the hesitation when people "half-believe, half-doubt."

**Surviving is more important than anything.** No matter how strong the trend looks, if your position management is weak or your timing is off, one violent shakeout can wipe you out. Paper profits don't count.

Simply put, you need to look up at the sky (macro direction), but also keep your eyes on the ground (market reality). It's fine to believe in the long-term narrative, but always have some respect for the market's short-term mood swings.

Listen less to pretty words and pay more attention to the market's real feedback. In this market, only those who survive until the end get to see the outcome.