2025-12-06 12:14:06

Vitalik recently put forward a pretty interesting idea—the Ethereum ecosystem needs a reliable on-chain gas futures market.

He mentioned that we could refer to a prediction market mechanism based on BASEFEE. Simply put, while transaction fees are indeed cheap right now, no one can say for sure what will happen in the next couple of years, right? Especially with BAL, ePBS, and all those ZK-EVM technologies rolling out one after another—will gas fees really stay this low? No one dares to guarantee that.

So, Vitalik thinks that if there could be an on-chain gas futures market, everyone would be able to lock in their future transaction costs in advance, or at least have a market-based reference for future fee trends. This way, whether you’re a developer or a user, you’d have a better sense of what to expect—should you stock up on gas or hold off? The market will provide the answer.

This proposal is actually quite practical. After all, on-chain transaction fees are extremely volatile. Sometimes, a hot NFT or DeFi protocol launches and gas fees shoot through the roof. If a futures market like this could really be built, it would definitely be a big improvement for the predictability of the entire ecosystem.

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AirdropGrandpa

· 4h ago

Hoarding gas? Now we can really play with futures, this feels a bit ridiculous, haha. Wait, can this thing really stabilize gas fees? I have my doubts. Damn, here comes another new concept. I need to do some research. Gas futures? Should've had this long ago, would save me from getting screwed every time. This idea is pretty good, definitely better than the current chaos. Vitalik’s mind is really something else, such a genius. Hold on, can you arbitrage when gas futures go live? Futures and locking in costs, sounds great on paper. Now the sensitive folks have a new way to play. If gas skyrockets one day, I’ll go bankrupt anyway—futures won’t save me.

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ZkSnarker

· 4h ago

honestly? gas futures just feels like we're one step closer to financializing literally everything on-chain lmao... which i guess is fine, actually. here's the thing about basefee prediction markets tho—they only work if you've got sufficient liquidity, and we all know how that usually goes

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ForeverBuyingDips

· 4h ago

Really? Now that gas is cheap, you want to lock in future prices? I’d like to see who can actually bet on the right direction in two years. The idea of hoarding gas is a bit absurd. Instead of futures, it’s better to bet directly on L2. Vitalik is brainstorming again, but this time it’s actually a pretty good idea. Being able to lock in gas costs definitely feels satisfying, so you don’t get exploited by arbitrageurs. This is ridiculous—gas futures? I think it looks more like a tool for whales to fleece retail investors. Wait, isn’t this just a disguised gas tax? Somehow it feels even more expensive. But all that said, there really does need to be something to stabilize expectations. There’s something to it, but you have to avoid the pitfalls when implementing it, or else it’ll just be another vaporware futures product.

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MetaverseVagrant

· 4h ago

Honestly, a futures market for gas fees should have been set up a long time ago. Otherwise, every time you have to gamble on luck. Gas futures? Interesting, but I'm afraid it'll just become another machine for capital to harvest new retail investors. Sounds good, but it all depends on whether someone actually builds it. Just talking without action is meaningless. Hoarding gas? That's hilarious. In the end, it'll still be retail investors who get stuck. I've seen this trick too many times. Will gas really get cheaper with ZK-EVM? I don't believe it anyway. An on-chain futures market sounds good, but will there be enough liquidity? Feels like another fake demand situation. Not bad, Vitalik, but this thing also comes with high risks. It's just another arena for games. Big capital is probably already figuring out how to manipulate this market. After thinking it over, I'll just watch from the sidelines.

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BankruptWorker

· 4h ago

Doing fancy stuff again? I’m skeptical about gas futures. You really need a reference point for hoarding gas, otherwise it’s just gambling on luck. This should’ve been done a long time ago. Every time gas fees explode, I lose everything. Alright Vitalik, if you can pull this off, I’ll believe in you. Sounds nice, but the key is—who’s actually going to do it? Just talking about it is pointless. Forget it, I don’t have money to hoard anyway. Poor people don’t need to think about this stuff so much.

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