Next Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Rate Cut "Set in Stone," Hawk-Dove Debate in the Spotlight

On December 6, the Federal Reserve will hold its final interest rate meeting of the year, with the rate decision to be announced at 3:00 AM (UTC+8) on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference held by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 3:30 AM (UTC+8). According to CME FedWatch, there is an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week. The upcoming Fed meeting is expected to be one of the most contentious in recent years, with investors focusing on the divisions among policymakers regarding the outlook for rate cuts and the signals that Chair Powell will send about the future direction of policy. Out of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), five have expressed opposition or skepticism toward further monetary easing, while three board members support a rate cut. Since 2019, the FOMC has not seen three or more dissenting votes at any meeting, making the dissenters the focus of close attention. Key macroeconomic data and events are as follows:

Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its rate decision; RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference; Wednesday: U.S. Q3 Employment Cost Index (QoQ); Bank of Canada announces its rate decision; Thursday: Federal Reserve FOMC announces rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections; Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6; Friday: Fed releases U.S. household financial health data from the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds Report; 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on the economic outlook; 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester gives a speech; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a moderator discussion ahead of the 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Chicago Fed.

Market closure reminders: On Wednesday, the NYSE will close early at 2:00 AM Beijing time; on Thursday, U.S. stocks, several European stock markets, Korean stocks, and Australian stocks will all be closed. All trading in precious metals, WTI crude oil, forex, and equity index futures contracts under CME Group (CME) and Brent crude oil futures contracts under Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will be suspended for the entire day.