Is the 30-year zero interest rate myth about to end? The Bank of Japan's policy shift is brewing a storm of global asset repricing.

This is not just a rumor. While everyone is watching for Fed rate cuts, the real variable is hidden across the Pacific—Japan, long ignored by the markets, is preparing to make a game-changing move: raising interest rates.

Let’s look at three unavoidable hard facts. Core CPI has stayed above 2% for eight consecutive months, marking a definitive end to the deflation era; the yen has plummeted 45% over the past two years, causing immense pain for importers and making currency stabilization a political imperative; unions are demanding 5% wage hikes this year, and the labor market is so tight that companies have no choice but to comply. These three forces have cornered the Bank of Japan.

But what’s really making global markets nervous is the $4-5 trillion yen carry trade. In recent years, investors have been borrowing yen at zero cost and flipping it into US Treasuries, emerging market assets, and even cryptocurrencies. Now, if Japan raises rates, this capital flow will reverse—money will flow back to Japan, US Treasuries will be sold off, the dollar will spike in the short term, and emerging markets and risk assets will be hit by a liquidity crunch.

$ETH, $ZEC, #ETH走势分析 and other crypto assets are likely to experience short-term volatility alongside this. But over the longer term, gold and some digital assets with strong safe-haven properties might actually benefit. The reason is simple: expectations for Fed rate cuts haven’t changed, real interest rates are still on a downward trend, and geopolitical risks are still brewing. The shock from Japan’s rate hike is more like slamming the brakes on a long-term trend, rather than a full reversal.

Markets are never afraid of a single variable—they fear multiple forces pulling in different directions at once. This time, the Bank of Japan is doing more than just changing its rate policy; it’s tearing at the underlying logic of global capital flows. Short-term pain is inevitable, but history always tells us: true opportunities are often born out of chaos.