On December 6, KobeissiLetter released data showing that the US leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate, with the ratio of leading economic indicators to coincident economic indicators dropping to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008. This ratio has been declining for four consecutive years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, new manufacturing orders, weekly hours worked, and initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) measures the current state of economic development in real time, such as nonfarm payrolls. Historically, every time this ratio has fallen as sharply as it has now, the US economy was already in a recession.
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Data: The US leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate, and the US economy is already in a recession.
On December 6, KobeissiLetter released data showing that the US leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate, with the ratio of leading economic indicators to coincident economic indicators dropping to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008. This ratio has been declining for four consecutive years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, new manufacturing orders, weekly hours worked, and initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) measures the current state of economic development in real time, such as nonfarm payrolls. Historically, every time this ratio has fallen as sharply as it has now, the US economy was already in a recession.