#美联储重启降息步伐 This month is getting interesting—two major central banks are about to go head-to-head.

On the 10th, the Fed will most likely hit the rate cut button—the market has been pricing in an 85%+ probability over the past few days, so it’s pretty much a sure thing. Normally, a rate cut means money is easier to borrow, liquidity increases, and that should be bullish for crypto.

But on the 19th, the Bank of Japan is planning something, with the governor already hinting at a possible rate hike. That’s awkward—if the yen’s interest rates go up, funds that have been arbitraging with the yen will have to exit, and when selling pressure hits the market, can crypto prices really hold up?

Two forces are pulling in opposite directions. In theory, the Fed’s liquidity boost meets resistance from Japan tightening. Who wins in the end? In my opinion, in this current bear market, “bullish news doesn’t push prices up, bearish news drops them hard” is the norm. The damage from a yen rate hike will probably outweigh the sweet spot from a US rate cut.

Once things settle in Japan on the 19th, if $BTC keeps heading down, I won’t be surprised at all. This move might just leave a lot of people stuck at the top watching the view again.