#比特币对比代币化黄金 Recently, $BTC has been consolidating near $89,550, and many are worried it might continue to drop. However, if you take a closer look at the technical charts and macro data, there are actually bullish sparks hidden in the short term.

First, let's talk about the price level—right now, BTC is sitting right at the key support zone between $88,000 and $90,000. This range isn't drawn out of thin air: first, it's been the launchpad for several recent rebounds; second, JPMorgan has calculated that this is roughly the mining break-even line. If BTC falls below this level, miners will start to lose money and be forced to sell at a loss, so the selling pressure isn't as strong as you might think.

Looking at the 4-hour chart's KDJ indicator, the K value is 30.3 and the D value is 31.2—already close to the oversold area. Combined with the daily RSI starting to climb from a low level, it suggests that most of those who wanted to sell have already sold, and the next wave could be bottom-fishing buyers entering the market. If BTC can break out above the $93,000–$94,000 range with strong volume (which is both a previous resistance area and the 20-day moving average), the next stop could easily be $95,000 or even $100,000.

The macro picture is even more interesting. The market is now pricing in a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates in December. Rate cuts mean more liquidity and a weaker dollar, and in this environment, high-risk assets have historically performed well. Looking at past data, every time the Fed enters an easing cycle, $BTC shines. Even traditional institutions like Bank of America are starting to allocate to crypto assets, and although ETF flows have seen some short-term ups and downs, a total of $22 billion has flowed in so far. The institutional logic is simple: buy the dip.

There's also a hidden bomb—around $96,000, there are $3 billion worth of short positions stacked up. If the price breaks above this level, those shorts could be forced to cover, turning into buying pressure. The previous bounce from $84,000 to $92,000 happened exactly this way—the power of a short squeeze shouldn't be underestimated.

Of course, risks need to be mentioned: the $88,000 support line must hold. If it breaks, BTC could drop straight to $84,000–$85,000. Also, if the Fed gets too hawkish during a rate cut ("hawkish cut"), or if inflation data suddenly spikes, the rebound could be put on hold.

In summary, there's still technical room for a rebound, macro liquidity expectations offer support, and short liquidations could trigger a move at any time. The short-term bullish case isn't without merit, but you need to keep a close eye on those key price levels.