The day before yesterday, someone asked me if it was a good idea to go long after this round of bullish news. I poured cold water on the idea right away: Don’t rush in, it’s a trap.

Why do I say that? On the surface, the news does look good, but the price happens to be stuck at a very delicate spot—a pile of over 900 million long contracts sitting below. When the market pumps in situations like this, it’s usually not a real rally, but a bait. They push the price up to lure retail investors in, then suddenly dump it, wiping out all the new long positions. In the industry, this is called "inducing longs for liquidation."

After hearing this, the person opened a short position near 3125. The market did move down afterward, and I told him to take profits early. He said he was glad he asked, otherwise he would’ve paid the price for it.

To be honest, by the time regular people see news like this, it’s already too late. What really matters is understanding the capital game behind the scenes—who’s positioning, where the chips are shifting, and which group the whales are about to target. If you can spot these moves in advance, you’ll have a better chance of surviving in the market.

You can’t make money beyond your level of understanding, but you can work to keep your understanding ahead. Pay close attention to the capital flows of major coins like ETH; don’t just focus on candlesticks and news headlines.