Everyone, today’s macro news can directly determine the overall trend for December.

Let’s look at the data first—September core PCE year-over-year: 2.8%. Overall PCE year-over-year: also 2.8%.

No surge, no crash, no wild swings—just steadily stuck in the “2-point-something” range.

What does this mean?

Whether the Fed will cut rates next week is no longer speculation by the market; the data is forcing them to make a decision.

The PCE indicator is the Fed’s lifeblood—they rely on it to set interest rate policy. Now the data is right here:

- Inflation hasn’t spiked
- Price growth is decelerating
- The job market is cooling
- The economy is under pressure
- Consumer confidence is dropping
- Even the government is delaying data releases

(In other words, they don’t even have the latest data in hand, just old numbers to use as reference.)

To put it plainly: the Fed has no reason to keep holding out.

But the real point isn’t inflation itself—it’s that **the timing of this rate cut is highly unusual.**

Let me break it down for you.

**1) PCE dropping to 2.8% means this round of inflation is truly under control**

What was everyone most afraid of in the first half of this year? An inflation rebound.

So what actually happened?

Core PCE: 2.9% → 2.8%
Overall PCE: 2.7% → 2.8% (slightly up but still at a low level)
Monthly increase: 0.3%, exactly as expected

Translation:

No sudden inflation breakout, no signs of deterioration, no policy obstacles.

For the Fed, the most important thing is not...