I've been following ICP since the very early days, going through the full market cycle: hype – crash – recovery – crash again. And at the current moment, if we look purely at the cash flow and market behavior, there are a few points that everyone needs to calmly examine carefully.

1️⃣ Where is the price now?
• ICP ~ 3.5 – 3.6 USDT
• 30 days: -30%
• 6 months: -36%
• 1 year: -76%

This is no longer just a correction. This is a prolonged downtrend in the true technical sense.

2️⃣ What are the big players saying?
• Last 5 days: Whales have net sold over 711,000 ICP
• Last 24h: Cash flow continues to be strongly negative
• Large, medium, and small orders are all leaning towards selling

Big money is pulling out, not coming in.

3️⃣ Derivatives: Shorts dominate
• Funding rate is consistently negative
• Open interest is increasing while price decreases

This is a very familiar pattern:

Short build-up – the higher it goes, the more it gets pushed down.

4️⃣ Order book: There is demand, but no confidence

The buy wall is quite thick below 3.5, but in reality:
• Every time there's a rebound → immediate selling
• No sign of sustainable accumulation

The market only has short-term bottom catchers left, no more long-term holders with strong conviction.

5️⃣ Realistic scenario ahead
• If it holds at $3.5: could move sideways to form a base
• If $3.5 breaks: the $3.0 – $2.5 range will be tested very quickly
• In a worst-case scenario, $2.x is not out of the question

⚠️ As for “returning to $5” in the short term?
→ With current cash flow: VERY UNLIKELY.

📌 Message for those stuck holding ICP:
• Don’t go all-in based on emotions
• Don’t believe in “good news” if the money is still pulling out
• Manage your capital, not just your conviction