Next Wednesday night (Beijing time, December 10), the Federal Reserve will announce its final interest rate decision of the year.

Right now, BTC has just stabilized above $92,000, and the market seems calm? Don’t be fooled by appearances. The significance of this meeting is much more complicated than just “whether or not there will be a rate cut.”

Let’s get straight to the conclusion—

A rate cut is almost a sure thing. CME’s FedWatch data shows that over 87% of traders are betting on a 25 basis point cut. But the real suspense isn’t here.

The real question: How will they cut?

There’s a good chance of a very subtle move—a rate cut on the surface, but with messaging between the lines that says, “Don’t get too excited.” This kind of “hawkish rate cut” is the most frustrating: they give you a taste, but don’t let you feast. The goal is clear: to prevent the market from getting carried away.

There’s also a longer-term variable to watch. Powell is set to step down in May next year, and the frontrunner to replace him, Kevin Hassett, is considered to have a more dovish stance. What does this mean? Future monetary policy could become even more accommodative.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

BTC’s recent rebound from the lows has been fueled in large part by rate cut expectations. But where things go after the decision will depend entirely on the Fed Chair’s wording. If the tone is dovish, risk assets could keep climbing; if the language is more hawkish, we could see a wave of profit-taking once the “good news is out.”

So at this point, caution is key. Don’t rush to go all in, but don’t panic sell either. Wait until the dust settles and the direction is clear before making your move.