#比特币行情观察 Bitcoin trend similar to gold, market outlook from late 2025 to 2026

Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical point in the tug of war between "oversold recovery" and "uncertain trend." From a market performance perspective, since hitting an all-time high of $126,300 in early October, it has dropped by more than 33%, wiping out much of its gains for the year. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has evaporated by $1 trillion, falling to $3.04 trillion. However, the recent rebound has shown some resilience, forming short-term support around $84,000, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. On December 1, the day of the sharp decline, trading volume surged to $114.42 billion, a jump of 178.44% from previous levels, reflecting a fierce clash between panic selling and bottom-fishing funds in the market.

According to JPMorgan, however, there is no need for concern at the moment. They expect Bitcoin could rise by 84% in the next 6 to 12 months, as their model predicts that Bitcoin’s trading pattern will resemble that of gold.

A team of strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a recent client report: “Our volatility-adjusted comparison metric between Bitcoin and gold still indicates that the theoretical price of Bitcoin is close to $170,000, which suggests there is significant upside for Bitcoin in the next 6-12 months.”

JPMorgan has long held the view that Bitcoin’s trading pattern may become more similar to gold’s. This was especially evident in April this year, when tariff concerns triggered a historic sell-off in the US stock market and led to capital inflows into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The Federal Reserve’s December monetary policy meeting (December 10-11) has become the key variable affecting short-term market trends. Although the market still expects a 25-basis-point rate cut, the tightening liquidity and resilient US Dollar Index since November have significantly increased the uncertainty of the policy outcome.

Crypto analytics firm Arkham Intel estimates that Strategy held about 437,000 Bitcoins in November, down from a peak of about 484,000 earlier in the month. Strategy CEO Phong Le previously stated that if its mNAV (market net asset value multiple: company market cap/crypto asset net value) falls below the threshold of 1, the company may eventually have to sell its Bitcoin.

However, JPMorgan strategists pointed out that the company recently announced it had raised $1.4 billion in cash reserves. Strategists estimate that this amount is sufficient to cover expenses such as dividends and interest for about two years, without the need to sell Bitcoin. They also added that with this reserve, the likelihood of a forced sale is “lower.” “On the other hand, if MSCI’s final decision is positive, both Strategy and Bitcoin could rebound strongly to pre-October 10 levels. This indicates that in such a scenario, cryptocurrencies could return to all-time highs.”