Something pretty surreal happened in 2025—Bitcoin and the US stock market, these two “trouble brothers,” actually diverged for the first time in a decade.

Let’s look at the numbers: the S&P 500 rose 16%, while Bitcoin dropped 3%. What does that mean? In the past, when US stocks went up, Bitcoin would rally along; when US stocks fell, Bitcoin would crash even harder. Now, the whole dynamic has changed.

The logic behind the US stock market is actually pretty clear. Expectations of Fed rate cuts are out there, the performance of tech and energy sectors is improving, and with trade tensions easing, risk appetite naturally increases. In short, there’s solid fundamentals backing it up.

But it’s awkward for Bitcoin. Capital has started moving into safe-haven assets like gold, and ETF inflows aren’t as strong as before. What’s worse, a series of high-leverage positions have been liquidated, triggering a cascade effect. Add to that the tightening regulatory environment worldwide, and speculative sentiment has been directly suppressed.

What does this round of divergence tell us? The old script of Bitcoin “following US stocks” might need to change. Its label as a pure risk asset is fading, while US stocks have real economic data to support their independent moves. The market is repricing these two types of assets—one driven by expectations and speculation, the other by actual earnings.