A lot of people ask me, why does this cycle feel off? To put it simply, crypto and the stock market are fundamentally different.

In stocks, as long as a company is making real money, has solid operations, and a clear outlook, even if the index drops, good stocks can still bottom out and rebound, sometimes getting even stronger—because there are fundamentals to support them.

But in the crypto market? There are no earnings reports or cash flow here. The pricing power is in the hands of Bitcoin and Ethereum. If either of them slips, all the other coins—regardless of project quality—will drop as well, often by several times more than BTC, with no ability to fight back.

According to past cycle patterns: it's normal for altcoins to fall harder, but the key is that they should rebound even more aggressively—that’s how it’s always been in previous cycles. Bitcoin might do a 2x, and altcoins could easily give you a 5x or even 10x surprise.

But this time, things are completely abnormal:
When it’s time to fall, they crash as usual, but when it’s time to rebound, they lag behind, and their gains can’t even compare to a fraction of Bitcoin’s. In plain terms—"they drag you down when falling, but leave you behind when rising."

The real reason behind this is that this cycle’s liquidity, market confidence, and capital structure are all problematic. Altcoins haven’t gotten the funding push they should have, and can only passively follow the overall market sentiment. So now the whole market is in a very distorted state:

Altcoins = Only take the downside, none of the upside.

That’s also why so many experienced players feel like "nothing is following the usual playbook"—it’s not that your judgment is wrong, it’s that this cycle itself has gone off track.