#美联储重启降息步伐 **For the First Time in a Decade, $BTC and the US Stock Market Have Completely Diverged**

At the start of 2025, the market witnessed a bizarre scene: the S&P 500 surged 16%, while Bitcoin slipped 3%. This is the first time in a decade that such a clear divergence has occurred.

The rally in US stocks isn't hard to understand. Rate cut expectations have loosened valuations, tech and energy sectors posted earnings above expectations, and a temporary easing of trade tensions has emboldened capital to flow into risk assets. All the traditional logic you'd expect from capital markets is there.

But on the crypto side? The story is completely different.

Funds have started flowing into hard assets like gold—which provide both a safe haven and an inflation hedge—leaving Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative temporarily ineffective. What's worse, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have noticeably slowed, high-leverage contracts have repeatedly been liquidated, and negative feedback loops are piling up. On top of that, tighter regulatory policies worldwide have put a direct pause on speculative enthusiasm.

This divergence is actually quite interesting: Bitcoin is no longer just a "follower" of the US stock market, and is shaking off its "pure risk asset" label. As for US stocks? They’re still driven by corporate earnings and economic fundamentals—rising when they should.

The pricing logic for both is undergoing a structural shift.