My phone kept buzzing non-stop in the middle of the night, and when I checked, the VIX fear index had soared past 30—that’s no small matter. The government shutdown in a certain country has already broken the 36-day historical record, and global capital is frantically seeking a safe haven. After so many years in this game, I’ve seen too many people lose their heads at the first sign of market volatility, but it’s usually the minority who really understand the underlying logic that end up making money.

You have to get your logic straight first. Many people only focus on the candlestick charts jumping around, without any real understanding of how money flows: budget disagreements have caused large-scale government paralysis, burning through $15 billion in just a week. What’s worse, key indicators like employment data and inflation reports have all been cut off, so the whole market is feeling around in the dark, making wild guesses based on gut feelings.

The messier things get, the more money seeks safety. Gold, the old heavyweight, has been making some big moves recently—central banks worldwide have been buying over 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, and gold prices are consolidating at high levels, clearly building up for something big. This momentum has also spread to the crypto market, and tokens pegged to gold have suddenly become hot commodities. I know a few institutional players who have already started entering in batches, targeting gold price levels in the $2,150 to $2,300 range.

But don’t rush to go all-in. The US Dollar Index has been weakening due to a lack of confidence; while some funds are flowing into crypto as a hedge, you still need to be cautious with any assets settled in dollars, in case of sudden reversals. On top of that, the S&P 500 is facing short-term correction pressure of about 5%, and many people who play both stocks and crypto are already losing their nerve.

There are opportunities, but the risks are significant too. The key is not to follow the crowd blindly—understand where the money is flowing and why, so you can hold your ground in this wave of volatility.