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The Bank of Canada has suddenly changed its tone—the previously expected rate-cutting path by the market may now go in the opposite direction.

The turning point came with the employment data. The unemployment rate in November unexpectedly dropped sharply, and the number of new jobs far exceeded expectations. This set of data directly rewrote the market's pricing logic for the Bank of Canada: traders are now betting that the central bank will begin raising rates before October 2026. Just a few months ago, everyone was still discussing "how many times rates would be cut next year."

The risk of an overheated economy is clear. With such a tight labor market, wage growth pressure will be transmitted to prices, making it difficult for inflation to truly cool down. In this situation, the central bank’s hand has changed—instead of continuing to risk loosening monetary policy, it’s better to reconsider tightening.

The bond market has already reacted. Canadian government bonds have been sold off, and the yield curve has steepened upwards—this is a typical "tightening trade" signal. Capital is repricing interest rate risk.

The significance of this event is that it breaks an illusion: not all central banks will dance in sync with the Federal Reserve’s rhythm. If a country’s economic data is strong enough, it can absolutely take an independent monetary policy path. When North America’s second-largest economy is possibly hiking rates in reverse, the so-called "global liquidity easing" narrative isn’t so simple anymore.

A more practical question is, if Canada really does shift first, what impact will it have on cross-border capital flows? Will changes in the US-Canada interest rate spread bring new arbitrage opportunities? These variables will all affect the pricing logic of risk assets.

When everyone is betting on rate cuts, and there’s suddenly a central bank that might raise rates, do you think this will change anything? Or is it just noise that won’t affect the bigger trend? Let’s discuss in the comments.