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🔥Bank of Canada breaks rate cut consensus, shifts toward rate hike expectations?

Just as the world is betting on a new easing cycle, North America has sent an "outlier" signal—

Market pricing shows: traders are now fully betting that the Bank of Canada will hike rates by October 2026. Just a few weeks ago, everyone was discussing how much room there was for rate cuts next year.

This reversal came too fast. The trigger was the latest jobs data: November's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped sharply, and job creation far exceeded market expectations. With the economy this strong, inflation control pressure has returned instantly for the central bank, and tightening policies are back on the table.

The bond market has already reacted—government bonds are being sold off and yields are spiking. Classic "tightening trade" characteristics.

This signal is interesting: it breaks the simple expectation that "all central banks will follow the Fed and inject liquidity." If domestic economic data is strong enough (especially a booming job market), it’s entirely possible to take an independent path—even tighten in the opposite direction.

🚨 The more crucial question is: if Canada really does shift first, will it affect global capital flows? The grand narrative of "liquidity about to flood the market" may not be so smooth after all.

When everyone is betting on massive easing, does the possibility of "countercycle tightening" make you re-examine your allocation strategy? Or do you think this won’t change the mainstream trend?

Share your thoughts in the comments 👇