PCE data comes in below expectations. Is the crypto market about to take off?

US September Core PCE Index released: 2.8%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the market expectation of 2.9%. This number may seem insignificant, but in macroeconomics, it’s a big deal—cooling inflation means there’s one less obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates. Institutions are predicting an 87% probability of a rate cut next week.

If it really happens, market liquidity will loosen up, and funds will naturally flow into risk assets. Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen about 15% on average within three months after a rate cut, and the volatility of altcoins is even more exaggerated. But here’s the question—if retail investors rush in at this point, can they really make money?

Stay calm, don’t get swept up by emotions

Today’s market is no longer a place where retail investors can win just by following their gut. Big institutions position themselves early, and their capital scale crushes retail investors. When you think it’s an “opportunity,” they might already be preparing to sell. So don’t go all-in; building positions in batches is the right way.

Trends matter more than guessing tops and bottoms. If the broader market stabilizes and moves upward, it shows macro pressures are indeed easing, and it’s not a big problem to follow along and get a piece of the action. But if it’s just sideways consolidation, then watch and wait—don’t rush in.

Be even more cautious with high leverage. The market is highly volatile now; with 10x leverage, you could be liquidated in five minutes. Set a stop loss at 8%-10%, and get out if you hit it. Don’t think “I’ll just hold on and recover”—that mindset has ruined too many people.

A real-life lesson

I know a friend who rushed into altcoins before the last rate cut, didn’t set a stop loss, and when prices dropped 10%, he got liquidated and lost his entire 200,000 capital. This time he changed his strategy: only testing the waters with 30% of his position and taking profits at 10%. Now, he’s steadily earning.

A rate cut may be a good thing, but it doesn’t mean you can win just by buying blindly. When the market gives you an opportunity, it’s also testing your risk management skills.