HYPE price prediction: $32 bounce looks fragile under heavy OI

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: HYPE price prediction: $32 bounce looks fragile under heavy OI Original Link:

Current Price Status

Hyperliquid’s HYPE is trading in the mid-$30s, currently near $32 after a failed breakout, down over 7% in 24 hours and 11% weekly from its $59 peak. Price action is currently shaped by supply from the recent unlock and ongoing purchases from the project’s assistance fund.

Key Market Indicators

Volume and Leverage Concerns:

• Spot trades on major venues are clustered in the low- to mid-$30s
• Shrinking spot volume and heavy derivatives open interest point to a leverage-driven, fragile market
• Spot and futures volumes are down by roughly a third from recent highs
• Daily RSI stuck in the high-40s suggests an undecided market where neither side has clear control

Supply Pressure

Approximately 9.9 million HYPE—roughly 2.6% of the circulating supply—dropped into circulation for insiders and contributors in a cliff event near November 29. While the Assistance Fund has spent over 600 million dollars on buybacks this year and usually absorbs a few million dollars of tokens daily, that steady demand looks small next to a one-off release of this size, leaving the market exposed if any of that supply hits the bid.

Technical Analysis

HYPE is still walking lower inside a descending channel that has capped rallies since late summer, with the $33-$35 band acting as a key pivot where both bulls and bears keep testing each other. Market structure shows:

• Lower highs with fading momentum
• Nearby supports in the low-$30s and high-$20s at risk
• A decisive daily close below the $33-$35 zone would quickly pull the $28-$30 area into focus as a likely liquidity pocket
• A clean reclaim and hold of the $36-$37 “distribution” area would hint that sellers are running out of inventory

Social Media Sentiment

Opinions on X are split. One camp argues HYPE is just slow beta lagging the market, while another folds the underperformance into a broader shift toward lower risk. A louder group claims the Assistance Fund is quietly accumulating tokens while HYPE trades weak, insisting current levels represent a temporary disconnect rather than fair value.

Price Outlook

The near term still tilts slightly to the downside. The fresh supply overhang and softer speculative participation make a retest of the high-$20s the base case, with a lower-probability path where HYPE squeezes back through $37 if macro risk stabilizes and the Assistance Fund’s bid is strong enough to absorb what remains of the unlocked supply.