This wave of inflation data is quite interesting!

The Fed’s most closely watched PCE indicator stayed firmly below 3% in September, and core inflation slipped from 2.9% to 2.8%. Looking at the data alone, isn’t the window for rate cuts already open?

But here’s the problem—
Overall inflation is still hovering around 2.8%, so it’s too soon to say it’s completely extinguished. What’s more awkward is that the government shutdown has wiped out October’s inflation data and November’s employment data. Next week’s meeting will be like making decisions with an incomplete puzzle.

On one hand, inflation is still lingering around 3%; on the other, the job market is visibly cooling. How do you balance these scales?

The market isn’t waiting for an answer. Wall Street’s expectations for rate cuts are sky-high, and Bitcoin’s price movements in the past couple of days have been interesting too—the data isn’t even all in, but the capital is already getting restless.

To be honest, I’m really curious if they’ll dare to make a move with incomplete information this time. After all, everyone saw the consequences of being too aggressive last time, but if they hold back, the market can’t wait.

It’s a dilemma, and situations like this are often where surprises happen.

If there really is a rate cut, would you choose to go all in at once or build your position in batches? I’m not comfortable betting on a one-sided trend anymore. Share your thoughts in the comments?