#ETH走势分析 Recently, I’ve been going through Vitalik’s articles and Ethereum’s public technical roadmaps, and I found that the upcoming upgrades are pretty intense, mainly advancing in two major directions.

Let’s start with the hard rule adjustments that Vitalik specifically mentioned on December 4th. The first move is to set a cap on the amount of code a single transaction can call—in the short term, this will make calling those super-large contracts a bit more expensive, but in the medium to long term, it will work together with the binary tree storage structure to switch to a model that charges by data blocks, which makes more sense. Another focus is on the ZK-EVM front, where a standard needs to be set for the validator’s computation cycles, with a simultaneous adjustment to the fee mechanism. Otherwise, the proof data generated by Layer2 could easily clog up the mainnet. Memory metering also needs to be re-optimized, setting a clear boundary for virtual machine memory consumption, which can significantly reduce the risk of client attacks.

Looking further ahead, the “three-stage” big direction was actually hinted at during the developer conference in Japan in September. The current first step is to raise the L1 gas limit and utilize technologies like ZK-EVM to directly boost mainnet processing capacity. The mid-term focus will shift to enabling smooth interaction between different Layer2s, and privacy protection capabilities will be strengthened—after all, scenarios like payments and DeFi operations have always had strong privacy demands. The ultimate goal is to create a secure and streamlined lightweight version of Ethereum, which needs to withstand threats from quantum computers and use formal verification to optimize cryptographic primitives like hashes and signatures.

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There are also changes in the upgrade cadence. Previously, there was one major upgrade per year, but now it will shift to two hard forks per year. According to the plan, there will be a major update called Glamsterdam in 2026, so it’s worth keeping an eye on further developments.