Freshly released US September Core PCE Price Index YoY: actual 2.8%, expected and previous both 2.9%.

The data underperformed expectations, and the market immediately sensed the possibility of a rate cut. What signal does this send to Bitcoin and the crypto market? Let’s break down the logic behind it.

Here’s the core transmission chain 👇

Liquidity logic restarts 💧
With inflation data easing, the Fed’s rate hike pressure has loosened a bit. Once rate cut expectations start to ferment, there’s a reason for the global "liquidity tap" to loosen. Looking back at history, every time an easing signal appears, capital loves to flow into high-volatility assets like Bitcoin.

The dollar might not hold up 📉
Rate cut expectations directly dampen the appeal of the US dollar. Remember this simple rule: when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin usually benefits. After all, crypto assets are priced in dollars, and this logic directly affects the pricing foundation.

But don’t rush in blindly—keep a close eye on these points ⚠️

Beware the "expectation fulfillment trap"
The market often plays the game of "buy the rumor, sell the news." After a bullish event materializes, short-term capital may exit, causing sharp volatility—don’t get led by emotion.

Internal variables are the real wildcards
On-chain whale movements, derivative liquidation pressure, and options expiry dates—these internal factors can influence short-term trends as much as macro factors. Macro tailwinds don’t guarantee an immediate one-way rally.

Watch these two indicators
The US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury yields are real-time thermometers for validating the macro logic. If they don’t cooperate, even the best expectations may end up going nowhere.

Bottom line 💎
Cooling inflation has given the crypto market a strong macro boost, and the medium- to long-term support logic is indeed strengthening. But for short-term trading, you still need to consider technicals and on-chain data—don’t let internal noise mess up your timing.