#数字货币市场洞察 Recently observing $BTC ’s trend, I’ve noticed an interesting contradiction: the price is dropping, the technicals don’t look good either, but institutions are quietly making big moves.

Let’s start with institutional activity. BlackRock recently transferred $120.3 million worth of BTC, and even more notably, Harvard University actually increased their position during the price drop, now holding as much as $443 million. What does this mean? Clearly, big money isn’t focused on short-term fluctuations—they’re eyeing long-term value. Meanwhile, there’s regulatory progress as well: the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has directly approved spot crypto trading, and South Korea’s Woori Bank has started integrating Bitcoin price data. In Indiana, a bill was even passed allowing pension funds to allocate to BTC—something unimaginable just a few years ago.

On the technical side, things look pretty grim. The EMA has formed a death cross, MACD remains negative, and the price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band—all three signals point to heavy selling pressure. However, one detail stands out: the 6-period RSI has dropped to 15.87, a level that has often marked the start of oversold rebounds in the past. Of course, this doesn’t mean a rebound is imminent, but it does suggest that the sell-off might be nearing its end.

The liquidity situation is even more straightforward. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has seen net outflows of $2.7 billion, and FINRA’s survey shows American retail investors’ willingness to buy crypto is declining. The macro environment is also problematic: the Bank of Japan may raise rates, leading to tighter global liquidity, and the recent $187 million in long liquidations is just a snapshot of that. External economic pressures are clearly exposing the crypto market’s vulnerabilities.

In terms of community sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index is currently at 28—a typical panic state. Everyone’s debating whether the $90,000 support can hold, with some talking about long-term dollar-cost averaging strategies, while others are waiting on the sidelines for even lower entry points.

Overall, the short-term technicals and liquidity point bearish, but institutional adoption and regulatory progress tell a different story. The market is currently in a period of divergence between sentiment and fundamentals, and the next few weeks could be critical for the price action.

$BNB $DOGE