After years of navigating the crypto market, I’ve seen too many people blow up their accounts and exit the scene because they went all-in and got liquidated. The rule I stick to is the 50% position sizing principle: split your capital into five parts, and never allocate more than 1/5 at a time.

First, risk control bottom line: set a hard stop loss of 10 points for each trade. This means any single loss only costs 2% of your total capital, so even five consecutive losses only take a 10% hit. On the flip side, set take profit at over 10 points; you need this risk-reward ratio to survive. Most people lose because they don’t cut losses, or they keep holding losers, dreaming of a rebound when their account is already down 30%.

Next, timing logic. A rebound during a downtrend? That’s a bull trap—don’t catch falling knives. The real opportunity comes from buying the dip after an uptrend pullback, which is much safer than bottom picking. Coins that pump hard in the short term—whether blue chips or meme coins—usually cool off after a volume spike. Chasing highs at this point just means you’re exit liquidity for others.

I use MACD the most: enter when a golden cross forms below the zero line and breaks above it; reduce your position when a death cross appears above the zero line. Combine this with volume and price action: a breakout with high volume at low levels is worth a shot, but high volume at highs without price movement means someone’s dumping—get out fast.

There’s another iron rule for position management: never average down when in a loss. Retail traders love to buy more as prices drop, but that just buries them deeper. The right approach is to add to winners and let your profits run.

Finally, on trend judgment: use the 3-day moving average for short-term trades, 30-day for medium-term holds, 84-day to catch major uptrends, and only consider long-term allocation if the 120-day is trending up. Review your position logic and weekly K-line patterns daily, and adjust your strategy promptly if it’s not working.

The essence of this method is: control your position size, follow the trend, and don’t get greedy trying to catch every move. The market will always offer opportunities, but if your account hits zero, you’re truly out of chances.